Reference Library for the “Forward Rate Bias”, also known as the “Forward Premium Puzzle”

 

Text Box: The following papers are listed in reverse chronological order.

Author

Year

Title

Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum, I. Kleshchelski, and S. Rebelo

(2006)

‘The Returns to Currency Speculation,’ National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 12489, August 2006. www.nber.org/papers/w12489.

Baillie, R.T. and R. Kilic

(2005)

‘Do Assymetric and Nonlinear adjustements Explain the Forward Premium Anomaly?’ http://www.lancs.ac.uk/staff/lubberin/seminars/pdffiles/baillieuippaperapril81.pdf.

Chinn, M.D. and G. Meredith

(2004)

'Monetary policy and long-horizon uncovered interest parity,' IMF Staff Papers, vol.51 (3): 409-30.

Frankel, J. and J. Poonawala

(2004)

‘The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased than in Major Currencies,’ http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~jfrankel/FDBiasEMktsJumanaurev06sbmSept1.pdf.

Kritzman, M.

(2004)

‘The Forward Rate Bias: An Update,’ Economics and Portfolio Strategy, July 15, 2004: 7pp.

Flood, R.P. and A.K. Rose

(2002)

‘Uncovered interest parity in crisis,’ IMF Staff Papers, vol.49 (2): 252-66. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/staffp/2002/02/pdf/flood.pdf

Bekaert, G., M. Wei and Y. Xing

(2002)

'Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure,' NBER working paper #8795, http://venus.icre.go.kr/metadata/22998_w8795.pdf.

Radalj, K.

(2002)

‘Risk Premiums and the Forward Rate Anomaly: A Survey,’ http://www.iemss.org/iemss2002/proceedings/pdf/volume%20due/396_radalj.pdf.

Berk, J.M. and K.H.W. Knot

(2001)

‘Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-based exchange rate expectations,’ Journal of Banking and Finance, vol.25 (2) February: 377-91.

Alexius, A.

(2001)

'Uncovered interest parity revisited,' Review of International Economics, vol.9 (3): 505-17.

Christensen, M.

(2000)

‘Uncovered interest parity and policy behavior: New evidence,’ Economics Letters, vol..69 (1) October: 81-87.

Baillie, R.T. and T. Bollerslev

(2000)

‘The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think,’ Journal of International Money and Finance, vol.19 (4) August: 471-88.

Bansal, R. and M. Dahquist

(2000)

‘The forward premium puzzle: Different tales from developed and emerging markets,’ Journal of International Economics, vol.51 (1) : 115-44.

Faust, Jon and J.H. Rogers

(1999)

‘Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior,’ International Finance Discussion Paper no.652, November. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1999/652/ifdp652.pdf.

Barnhart, S.W., R. McNown, M.S. Wallace

(1999)

‘Non-informative tests of the unbiased forward exchange rate,’ Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol.34 (2) June: 265-91.

Blom, M.H.J.

(1999)

‘Een theoretische en empirisch onderzoek naar de geldigheid van de ongedekte interest pariteit,’ DNB WO&E working paper no.576

Anker, P.

(1999)

‘Uncovered interest parity, monetary policy and time-varying risk premia,’ Journal of International Money and Finance, vol.18 (6) December: 835-51.

Meredith, G. and M.D. Chinn

(1998)

‘Long-horizon uncovered interest rate parity,’ NBER Working paper no.6797.

Mark, N.C. and Y. Wu

(1998)

‘Rethinking deviations from uncovered interest parity: The role of covariance risk and noise,’ Economic Journal, vol.108 (451) November: 1686-1706.

Ligeralde, A.V.

(1997)

‘Covariance matrix estimators and tests of market efficiency,’ Journal of International Money and Finance, vol.16 (2) April: 323-43.

Huisman, Koedijk, Kool, Nissen

(1997)

‘Extreme support for uncovered interest parity,’ Journal of International Money and Finance, vol.17 (1) :

Flood, R.P. and A.K. Rose

(1996)

‘Fixes: Of the forward discount puzzle,’ Review of Economics and Statistics, vol.78 (4) November: 748-52.

Engel, C.

(1996)

‘The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of the recent evidence,’ Journal of Empirical Finance, vol.3 (2): 123-92.

Phillips, P.C.B., J.W. McFarland and P.C. McMahon

(1996)

‘Robust tests of forward exchange market efficiency with empirical evidence from the 1920’s,’ Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol.11 (1) Jan-Feb: 1-22.

Lewis, K.K.

(1995)

‘Puzzles in international financial markets,’ in G. Grossman, K. Rogoff (eds.) Handbook of International Economics, vol.3. Elsevier: 1913-71.

McFarland, J.W., P.C. McMahon and Y. Ngama

(1994)

‘Forward exchange rates and expectations during the 1920s: A re-examination of the evidence,’ Journal of International Finance, vol.13 (6) December: 627-36.

McCallum, B.T.

(1994)

‘A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship,’ Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.33 (1) February: 105-32.

Bekaert, G. and R. J. Hodrick

(1993)

‘On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums,’ Journal of International Money and Finance, vol.12 (2) April: 115-38.

Mayfield, E.S. and R.G. Murphy

(1992)

‘Interest rate parity and the exchange risk premium: Evidence from panel data,’ Economics Letters, vol.40 (3) November: 319-24.

Byers, J.D. and D.A. Peel

(1991)

‘Some evidence on the efficiency of the sterling-dollar and sterling-franc forward exchange rates in the interwar period,’ Economics Letters, vol.35 (3) March: 317-22.

Gruijters, A.P.D.

(1991)

‘De efficientie van valutamarkten: een overzicht,’ Maandschrift Economie, vol.55 (4): 244-67.

MacDonald, R. and M.P. Taylor

(1991)

‘Risk, efficiency and speculation in the 1920s foreign exchange market: An overlapping data analysis,’ Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, vol.127 (3): 500-23.

MacDonald, R. and M.P. Taylor

(1990)

‘The term structure of forward exchange premia: The inter-war experience,’ The Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies, vol.58 (1) March: 54-65.

Frankel, J.A. and K.A. Froot

(1990)

‘Exchange rate forecasting techniques, survey data, and implications for the foreign exchange market,’ NBER Working paper no.3470.

Froot, K.A. and R.H. Thaler

(1990)

‘Anomalies: Foreign exchange,’ Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.4 (3)  : 179-92.

Lewis, K.K.

(1989)

‘Changing beliefs and systematic rational forecast errors with evidence from foreign exchange,’ American Economic Review, vol.79 (4) September: 621-36.

Froot, K.A. and J.A. Frankel

(1989)

‘Forward discount bias: Is it an exchange risk premium?’ Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.104 (1) February: 139-61.

Cornell, B.

(1989)

‘The impact of data errors on measurement of the foreign exchange risk premium,’ Journal of International Money and Finance, vol.8 ( ) : 147-57.

Cumby, R.

(1988)

‘Is it risk? Explaining deviations from uncovered interest rate parity,’ Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.22 (2) September: 279-99.

Clinton, K.

(1988)

‘Transactions costs and covered interest arbitrage: Theory and evidence,’ Journal of Political Economy, vol.96 (2) April: 358-70.

Hodrick, R.

(1987)

The Empirical Evidence on the Efficiency of Forward and Futures Foreign Exchange Markets. Harwood.

Frankel, J.A. and K.A. Froot

(1987)

‘Using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations,’ American Economic Review, vol.77 (1) March: 133-53.

Fama, E.F.

(1984)

‘Forward and spot exchange rates,’ Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.14 (3) November: 319-38.

Meese, R. and K. Rogoff

(1983)

‘Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the 1970’s: Do They Fit Out of Sample?’ Journal of International Economics.

Bilson, J.F.O.

(1981)

‘The speculative efficiency hypothesis,’ Journal of Business, vol.54 (3) July 1981: 435-51.

Frankel, J.

(1980)

‘Tests of Rational Expectations in the Forward Exchange Rate Market,’ vol. 46, (4), April. Reprinted in On Exchange Rates, 1997, pp. 189-205, Cambridge: MIT Press.

Hansen, L.P., and R. J. Hodrick

(1980)

‘Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis,’ The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 88, (5), October: 829-853.

Tyron, R.

(1979)

‘Testing for rational expectations in foreign exchange markets,’ International Finance Discussion Paper No. 139, Federal Reserve Board, May 1979).

 

 

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